The
best way to illustrate the lack of objectivity in Old School Baseball is to
play my new favorite game: Guess Who Said
It!
The
rules are simple, I will present a quote pulled from the greatest site on the
web: firejoemorgan.com. It will be filled with irritating bias and clichés. And
you will pretend to guess which of the legion of virtually identical
commentators said it. The purpose of this exercise, as you might imagine, is
not to win the grand prize (a lifetime supply of dirt stained David Eckstein
jerseys) but to realize how astoundingly repetitive and pointless these clichés
are.
1)
“Sometimes home runs are rally killers, because
they clear the bases.”
2) “...the scrappy
Theriot would just as soon tells those statistics to shut up. Theriot doesn't hate baseball, but the
stats-oriented crew probably can't find much love for him. Theriot is one of
those throwback players who'd rather get his uniform dirty than impress the
pencil pushers at Baseball Prospectus.”
3) "Those intangibles
ARE important. To hear people downplay them, means to me that they don't
understand them. The computer age that we are in does not look for intangibles
or reward them or recognize them."
4) "(Jeter) has intangible qualities that can't be measured with
statistics."
5) "I believe that there is too great a reliance on statistical
forecasts; too little on judgment. We all know the old one about lies, damned
lies and statistics, and I do not wish to
condemn statistics out of hand. Those who prepare them are well aware of their
limitations. Those who use them are not so scrupulous. The truth is that
statistical results do not displace the need for judgment, they increase it.
The figures can be no better than the assumptions on which they are based and
these could vary greatly. In addition, the unknown factor which, by its very
nature is incapable of evaluation, may well be the determining one."
Now guess.
While you could, of course, have simply googled these phrases on
firejoemorgan.com and discovered who wrote them, I choose to believe that we do
not live in a world in which people would cheat simply, it would seem, for the
pure joy of cheating. Instead I believe in a world in which people cheat to
teach other people lessons, so long as I am the one doing the cheating. For
even if you had combed through firejoemorgan.com searching for these five
statements, you would not be able to discover who said statement #5.
But
before we get to my BIG LIE (and it is a big one), let’s take these one at a
time. #1 was Orel Hershiser, a superb pitcher but not quite so good an analyst.
You would receive half credit for Dusty Baker.
#2
was written by Bruce Miles, an obscure columnist who managed to combine in a
few short sentences all of the clichés that make me despise sportswriters.
#3
is Joe Morgan, and by this I do not mean that it IS the writing of the great
second baseman, I mean that that phrase, Morgan’s fealty to intangibles and his
blind dismissal of statistics has assumed Joe Morgan’s identity. To an entire
generation of baseball fans, Joe Morgan is not a hall of fame second baseman,
he IS intangibles, fear of computers and vicious ignorance.
#4
is there to keep you honest, it was a quote in a fantastically awful New York Post article that was written in
response to their apparent discovery that the Sabermetrics community hates
Derek Jeter’s defense. The remarkable thing about this quote is that it was
uttered by “East Village bar owner Kevin Hooshangi, 28.” Now Mr. Hooshangi, is no doubt
a brilliant bar owner and small business owner, one of the very pillars upon
which our economy is built, but he is not, nor does he pretend to be, a paid
baseball expert. And that is what I find truly incredible, that the baseball
insiders, who maintain their positions solely because of their constant
protestations that their first hand knowledge makes them uniquely capable of
understanding and explaining the game of baseball has rendered them no more
insightful than the literal man on the street. If there truly is a parity of
understanding between random people and Old School Baseball analysts (and there
is- I just proved it), then there is truly no reason for them to do anything
other than trot out interesting though doubtless apocryphal stories about how
George Brett applied pine tar.
Here
comes the lie, I discovered #5, not on firejoemorgan.com as I claimed, but
while I was researching sources for a Modern European History paper. Quote #5
was spoken by Margaret Thatcher during a speech entitled “What’s Wrong with
Politics” on October 11, 1968. It really is quite incredible how consistent the
language of conservative reactionaries can be. The statistical forecasts that
Thatcher railed against were economic prediction models, though the argument
would fit just as well if WAR, FIP or ZIPS were the targets. The “need for
judgment” that Thatcher advocates has become cliché within the world of Old
School Baseball, just as it was to become when unemployment shot through the
roof during the years of Thatcher’s rule. Thatcher’s “unknown factor,” presumably
referring to the possibility of unforeseen changes in the economic climate
could easily be replaced with “intangibles” and Joe Morgan would nod along
happily.
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