Jeremy Hellickson was plucked from high school by the Tampa
Bay Rays in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. During his six years in the
minor leagues he struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.1. He
racked up a superb 2.71 ERA and allowed only 7.4 hits per nine innings.
In August of 2008 the Rays, historically patient developers
of pitching prospects, finally granted the minor league hitters a reprieve from
his destructive fastball, changeup, curveball combination. Hellickson’s instant
success in the majors, he boasts a 3.14 ERA in 2+ seasons in the majors and the
2011 American League Rookie of the Year Award, rescued what had been a disaster
draft for the Devil Rays organization.
The three players chosen ahead of Hellickson by the Devil Rays,
Wade Townsend, Chris Mason and Bryan Morris have yet to reach the majors seven
years later. Their nineteenth round selection, high school first baseman Ike
Davis declined to sign and was selected by the Mets in the first round three
years later. Even with his struggles this year, Davis would have been the
second best player taken by the Rays in that draft, aside from Hellickson.
Yet the undoubted success of the semi-aptly named Hell-boy
at the big league level has left many sabermetricians confused.
During his 36.1 inning stint in the majors in 2010,
Hellickson struck out 8.17 and walked 1.98. His performance was exactly what
the pitching-greedy Rays were hoping for, as he was able to maintain his minor
league strikeout and walk rates while transitioning to the majors. The next two
and a half years, however, have been something of a shock. Not in terms of
results, for Hellickson’s ERA and innings pitched total have been excellent
thus far. No, the shock has come from how exactly he is doing it.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a crucial
sabermetric concept. It measures how often a batter reaches base when they do
not hit a homerun, walk or strikeout. The major league average BABIP is .292 thus far this season, and rarely budges much below that. In his 312.1 career
innings, Hellickson has produced a .237 BABIP. In 87 innings this year he has
compiled a slightly higher but still impressive BABIP of .255. Combined with
his propensity for stranding runners who reach base against him (82.1% career, 83%
2012, 72.4% league average), Hell-boy’s low BABIP has raised his Fielding
Independent Pitching (FIP) statistic, which measures only walks, strikeouts, and
home runs, to a sabermetric disaster of 5.42 this season.
His performance in the statistical areas that pitchers have the most control over, has made him a
below replacement player.
So what does Hellickson’s eternal battle with BABIP mean for
his future success and his current worth? Starting with the latter question,
even though he has not struck out many batters, and has allowed a large number
of home runs, he has compiled an ERA .60 runs lower than the league average.
Those runs saved will remain saved. However, his predictive statistics suggest
that he will not save runs at a near-elite rate in the future, thus putting his
future success in doubt. The question is complicated further by the absurd
dichotomy between Hell-boy the minor leaguer, who was a saber-boy’s dream, and
Hell-boy the big leaguer, a sabermetrician’s nightmare.
So, who is Jeremy Hellickson? Should he be defined by his
ERA, his BABIP or his FIP? Or, despite his two seasons of experience, should
the acronym drifting next to his name in the box score still be my all time
favorite: SSS, small sample size.
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