When it comes to baseball I define myself first and foremost
as an adherent of the principles of sabermetrics. I define myself secondly as a
baycurious fan (I root for the teams on both sides of the San Francisco Bay).
The Oxford English Dictionary defines sabermetrics as the “the application of statistical analysis to baseball records.”
The Oxford English Dictionary does not yet include a
definition for baycurious.
But let’s get back on topic. As I understand it,
sabermetrics is the search for objective knowledge about baseball. Stats
experts compile data on what happens on the field and use it to properly weight
and value each action by a player as rigorously and independently as possible.
The community of sabermetric friendly writers and bloggers then massage and interpret
that information to convey it in a vaguely comprehensible manner to their
readers and friends, the latter of which quickly learn to change the subject
whenever possible.
So what I don’t understand is why it is assumed that
sabermetricians and their less-mathematically-capable cohorts should be in
favor of instant replay in baseball. Now, don’t get me wrong, if every play in
baseball were subject to instant replay through either an NFL-style review
system (shudder) or a more palatable fifth umpire setup, one element of
uncertainty in the game would be removed. Sabermetric analyses would become
slightly more indicative of the true talent levels of the players involved, but
only slightly.
Think about it this way: Michael Bourn of the Atlanta Braves
is a very fast runner, so far this year he has successfully stolen 39 bases in
50 tries, resulting in an very respectable 78% success rate. Many of those
plays, by their very nature, were assuredly quite close, and it is entirely
possible that through umpire error one, maybe even two or three of the times
Bourn was thrown out at second he should have been called safe. In which case
he would have achieved a success rate of 80, 82 or 84%, different to be sure,
but it does not substantially alter Bourn’s objective value or the subjective
way in which we perceive him. Had be been thrown out a few more times, it would
had an equally noticeable, but hardly life-shatteringly negative effect on his
statistics.
Instant replay could make sure that what happens on the
field is slightly more objectively recorded. However, officiating mistakes have
a negligible effect on the values of individual players and teams as the errors
in judgment are (hopefully!) not the result of inherent biases against certain
players or teams. Forcing the umpire to make a mistake is not, as it is insoccer, a repeatable skill. Thus the errors will come close enough to evening
out over the aggregate that they will have an almost inconsequential effect on
how we view individual players. As far as I can tell, the only measurable area
in baseball in which players can influence the rulings of umpires through their
own skills is that of pitch framing by catchers. As no one is seriously
suggesting replacing home plate umpires with robots, this exception can be
discounted.
Alright, so instant replay will only improve our
understanding of the true skill level of baseball players slightly, but it is
still an improvement, so why do I, a self professed sabermetrician (with
admittedly non-existent math skills), oppose the expansion of instant replay?
I am not captive to the absurdly romantic notion of some
“human element” being essential to true enjoyment of the game. When the umpires
make a mistake I do not consider it a particularly beautiful aspect of my
chosen leisure activity. What I do value, however, is the fact that when an
umpire’s arm goes up, to signal either out or safe; that, as they say, is that.
I can then whoop and holler, high five and fist bump (if I happen to be at an
A’s game, I can do the Bernie lean), or I can curse and yell, and start to
throw things and then recover my sanity just in time to express my frustration
but avoid assault charges.
The one thing I do not want to do is wait.
Maybe I am just too much a part of the instant
gratification, plugged in, ADD generation, but when my favorite player rounds
third and heads for home I don’t want to wait for an official review to
determine whether my celebration or consternation was warranted.
To me, the infinitesimal benefits to our statistical
understanding of the game that would result from the expansion of instant
replay are not out-weighed by the omnipresent fear, now part and parcel of
football, that your moment of absurd excitement or even more absurd disgust
will be cancelled out by a minutes-long trip to the review booth.
I have gracefully accepted the place of home run video
review in baseball: the fences are too far away, the fans too close to the
field, and the ballparks just too damn quirky to ignore the fact that when the
ball reaches the seats, or at least appears to, the umpires need some help.
However, just because I profess to be a sabermetrician, does not, and should
not necessarily mean that I want replay expanded to the entire field. If you
are in favor of instant replay I will of course respect your opinion even as I
argue with you, I simply believe that you should not assume I am a member of
the Joe Morgan-esque brigade of stats haters because I do not agree with the supposedly
majority opinion on instant replay. The two need not be synonymous, just as
sabermetrician need not conjure up images of pocket protectors, pale skin, and
mother’s basements.
Very nice post. I do have to comment though, that, IMO, the biggest bias is in balls/strikes calls. How do we fix this? I know that there is a post-game (private) umpire review.
ReplyDeleteI don't care how long the game is, the thing that irks me the most in baseball are the bad, and sometimes absolutely horrific calls. When in a game or in a series the bulk of the bad calls all go in one teams favor, it makes the game difficult to watch. Bad calls are unfair to the teams, the players, the organizations, and most importantly the fans.
ReplyDeleteHello.
ReplyDeleteI am a student in South Korea who is studying about sabermetrics.
I would like to get some information about it and get answers of some questions.
Is it possible to have an interview for detailed information?
Thank you for your cooperation in advance.
It would be grateful to have a response.
Thanks foor this blog post
ReplyDelete